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Forekast — Truly Decentralized Prediction Markets

Permissionless markets. Community resolution. No corporate override. 1% market fee shared with token stakers.

The Problem

Polymarket proved prediction markets work — $6.8B+ in volume during the 2024 US election alone. But they also proved the centralization problem: geo-restrictions locked out users globally, centralized resolution let a single entity decide market outcomes, and markets can be censored by corporate policy at any moment. A prediction market controlled by a Delaware LLC is not truly permissionless.

Forekast builds the same product with zero centralized control. Multi-oracle resolution, staked validators, and fully permissionless market creation. No CEO can pull your market. No compliance department can block your country.

How It Works

1
Create a market — anyone can create a YES/NO market. Define the question, resolution source, and expiry date. Stake USDC as creator.
2
Trade shares — buy YES or NO outcome shares at market-implied probabilities. AMM-based pricing with deep liquidity pools.
3
Oracle resolves — at expiry, registered oracles submit resolution. Multi-oracle consensus required (≥3 of 5).
4
Winners claim — winning shares redeemable for USDC at $1.00/share. Instant settlement on Polygon. No withdrawal queue.
5
Disputes? — challenge period open for 24h after resolution. Staked validators vote. Final and irreversible.

Architecture — 5 Smart Contracts

ContractPurpose
PredictToken.solERC-20 governance token — staking, fee capture, validator bond collateral
Forekast.solGovernance — market parameters, oracle whitelisting, fee distribution, treasury
PredictionMarket.solCore AMM — YES/NO share minting, liquidity pools, automated pricing via LMSR
OracleRegistry.solMulti-oracle framework — whitelisting, reputation tracking, slashing for dishonest reports
MarketDispute.solDispute resolution — challenge window, staked validator voting, bond forfeiture for bad actors

Solidity 0.8.25OpenZeppelin v5PolygonLMSR AMMChainlink Functions

Key Features

Multi-Oracle Resolution
Markets resolved by consensus of ≥3 of 5 registered oracles. No single point of failure. Oracles stake tokens as bond.

Staked Validators
Dispute resolution by validators who stake $PREDICT. Honest validators earn fees. Dishonest ones get slashed.

Permissionless Markets
Anyone anywhere can create a market. No approval process. No jurisdiction blocking. The market exists as long as the chain does.

Instant Settlement
Winning shares redeem for USDC immediately upon resolution. No withdrawal queue. No "processing time." Polygon confirms in ~2 seconds.

Tokenomics — $PREDICT

Allocation%Vesting
Liquidity Mining35%Emitted over 6 years to LPs providing YES/NO liquidity
Treasury25%DAO-governed — oracle grants, development, security audits
Team & Contributors15%4-year linear vest, 1-year cliff
Validator Rewards15%Staking rewards for validators who resolve disputes accurately
Ecosystem Fund10%Grants for market creators, data providers, integrations

Total supply: 1,000,000,000 PREDICT. 1% market fee distributed: 0.5% to liquidity providers, 0.3% to validators, 0.2% to treasury.

Polymarket vs Forekast

PolymarketForekast
Market Fee0% (subsidized)1% (sustainable)
Permissionless CreationNo — approval requiredYes — fully open
ResolutionCentralized — UMA oracle + teamMulti-oracle consensus (3 of 5)
Geo-RestrictionsYes — US blockedNo — unstoppable
Censorship ResistanceLow — company can delistHigh — DAO governed
Revenue ModelVC subsidized, future fees unknownTransparent 1% fee → stakers
Settlement SpeedPolygon (~2s)Polygon (~2s)
GovernanceCorporate boardToken holders via Forekast
Withdrawal CustodyPlatform holds fundsNon-custodial — smart contracts

Forekast charges a 1% fee instead of Polymarket's VC-subsidized free model — but that fee flows to token stakers and LPs, creating a self-sustaining ecosystem. No bait-and-switch when the VC money runs out.

Tech Stack

Smart Contracts

Solidity 0.8.25
OpenZeppelin v5
LMSR AMM model

Blockchain

Polygon
USDC settlement
Chainlink oracle feeds

Frontend

React + TypeScript
ethers.js v6
Real-time order book

View Source Code →

Contracts verified. Fully tested AMM + oracle resolution. Deployed on Polygon mainnet. Portable to Base and other EVM chains.